Khan I guess the 2011 US Open Champion?

2011 US Open men's tennis champion. Can I predict it?

It's all in the numbers. The more the numbers, the better. The more fiddling with them, the fancier.  Fanciness will lead to concealment. From there the plausibilities are endless.  Of course, I joke: I am eager for you to understand.  To that end, I hope to make these crazy charts understandable.

To get at the numbers and what I'll conclude from them, it will take some explaining first.  Hold tight; it'll all make sense and lead to a thrilling conclusion.

I describe the performance of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic over the period 2008 to the middle of 2011.  The three men have been selected because together they have held the number one ranking in men's professional tennis from 2004 until today; by 'today' I mean this very morning.  Roger himself maintained the equivalent of this 'Superbowl champion' status -- that's what an achievement #1 is -- for five years running.

In the charts below I record results in the four 'majors' over the years, 2008 through the middle of 2011.  For a player to enter and to be seeded properly depends upon points he acquires in the year dated from the last day of the prior November.  The players that play in the four 'major' tournaments are selected by the total number of points listed on the ladder or by special selection (top amateurs, for example).

Here are the major tournaments' names and locations (plus the headers I'll be using).  In calendar order: the Australian open (Melbourne, Australia - AUS), the French Open (Paris - FRE), the Championships at Wimbledon -- really, please -- Wimbledon (London -WIMBL, WIMBLE) and finally the US Open (New York -- USOP).





<September 19, 2011 --  While the tournament has passed, the mechanism I developed and the predictions were already written; so, just to show the method, I reproduce here the results and comparisons to show how well the what was predicted. >

We would conclude from the numbers that Federer  is a long shot among the three.  Further, that if Nadal and Djokovic play the final the match will be ultra-tight and a toss-up.  What actually happened, that Federer took Djokovic to two Federer match points before being overwhelmed after Djokovic finally relaxed (at a joke he himself made that brought much merriment and applause from the crowd).

Therefor the 4.3 versus 2.3 matchup came at one point to a razor's edge.

The final pitting Nadal against the #1 Djokovic was a blister-barrage of Novak over Rafael, a straight sets victory never in question over the three sets.  A four of seven set match, taking no account of fatigue, might have gone to Nadal, as he was conceding less and less each set (6-1, 6-2, 6-4); however, this scenario takes no account of the distress he'd experience over how hard it was to win service games.

My poor prediction came down to a couple of errors.  I gave Nadal a point in intangibles, for his likely extra drive to regain the number #1 ranking.  This was a thin rationalization in that this drive was clouded over by a spoken pessimism of Nadal's I can reproduce with some accuracy, "I have not year found a solution for Djokovic."  This, based on five straight defeats.  Roger had been one of the only two players on tour to have beaten Novak this last year.  

So, I'd now replace the reductions in Nadal's chart from 1 to 0, bringing his prediction to 3.4. 


I ommited one more measure: to account for the chance of the field to win.  Using an arbitrary total  of 12.0 for winning for all players, let's complete the arithmetic.  Federer (4.3), Nadal (3.4), Djokovic (2.4)
 account for 7.0 of the probability.  Tsonga, Soderling, Isner and the rest of the field together would stand a 5.0 chance.


Interestingly, yet to be proven or even examined, to reduce each of our three players numbers by 2.0 yields a number corresponding to the coding system): Federer (2.3 = semifinalisist), Nadal (1.4 =finalist ), and Djokovic (0.4 = winner).  How this really stands up to the method might just be an anecdote.  But??


That's it.  Enjoy the charts.

The chance of each player is expressed in a prediction number given in decimals to one place, a lower number showing a better chance.

From the charts below, the chance of Roger Federer is 4.3.  Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic emerge with only the barest difference in likelihood to win (2.4 to 2.3).  The chief determinants between the two are in reductions and US Opens with Nadal scoring a 1 for US Opens won and Djokovic having 3 points for reductions to Nadal's with 1 point.

Abbreviations used below:

yr-maj = total for all scores for the majors for one of the years in the timeframe

maj-tot= of scores for the majors for a given year, the average

avg-major = average of all the scores for a specific major over the four-year span

tot-avgs = sum of averages for all majors over the four-years

factor = amount by which avg-major (avg of majors' score over 4 years) will be multiplied

tot-wtd = finally, the sum of all weights derived by using (factors times yearly weights) minus the number of US Opens won over period)

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Player
FEDERER
Majors
	AUS	FREN	WIMBL	USOP	yr-maj
Yrs
	S 3	F 1	F 1	W  0	5
2009	F  1	W 0	W 0	F   1	2
2010	W 0	Q 5	Q 5	S  3	13
2011	S 3	F 1	Q 5	prediction^	9
				`
maj-tot	5	7	11	4	29
yr 2008	avg-maj	1.25	minmzg 2008	factor 1/5	.25
yr 2009		.5	lessng 2009	1/3	.17
yr 2010		3.2	cutting 2010	1/2	1.6
yr 2011		3	leaving same	1/1	3
	tot-avgs	7.25		tot-wtd	5.29
			minus Opens	1
					4.3
			maj-tot	29
			yr-avg	7.3
			total-wtd	4.3
reductions*			reductions*	0
momentum	0
intangibles	0		Prediction^	4.3^
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Player
Raf NADAL
Majors
	AUS	FRE	WIMBL	USOP	yr-maj
Yrs
2008	S 3	W 0	W 0	S  3	6
2009	W 0	10	---	S  3	13
2010	Q 5	W 0	W  0	W  0	5
2011	Q 5	W 0	F 1	prediction^	6
By Major:	13	10	1	6
yr 2008	>	1.5	minmzg 2008	factor 1/5	.3
yr 2009		4.2	lessng 2009	1/3	1.43
yr 2910		1.25	cutting 2010	1/2	.63
yr 2011		2	leaving same	1	2
	avg	7.25		tot-wtd
					4.36
			minus Opens	1
					3.4
			maj-tot	29
			yr-avg	7.25
			total-wtd	3.4
reductions*			reductions*	1
momentum	0
intangibles	1		Prediction^	2.4^

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DJOKOVIC Majors AUS  FREN   WIMBL USOP yr-maj Yrs 2008 W 0 S 3  10  SF  3 16 2009 Q  5 10  Q 5  SF  3 23 2010 Q  5 Q 5  S 3   F  1 14 2011 W  0 S 3  W 0 pred^ 3   By Major:  10  21  18 7 56  yr 2008 avg-maj 4 minimzg 2008 factor 1/5 0.8  yr 2009 5.8 lessng 2009          1/3 1.91  yr 2010 3.2 cutting 2010          1/2 1.6  yr 2011 1 leaving same         1 1 tot-avgs 14 tot-wtd 5.31 minus Opens 0 5.3 maj-tot 56 yr-avg 14 total-wtd 5.3 reductions* reductions* -3 momentum -2 <<record intangibles -1  <<#1 Prediction 2.3

Khan Sharapova regain the It factor on the grounds of Wimbledon?

Commentary begins with Maria Sharapova evening the score in the second set of the Ladies final of the 2011 Wimbledon championship; more properly "The Championships, Wimbledon".

Sharapova is twenty-four years old.  At seventeen she won the title, its seemed, by waves of unconscious brilliance.

Her opponent today, Petra Kvitova of Belarus, is swinging her substantial pony-tail side to side while she returns the wide, flat returns that have been the key to Sharapova's game.  Martina (Navratilova, if I must include her last name) is Kvitova's idol.  Like the early Martina, Kvitova is  playing off the base line and goes for shots from every angle and depth of the court.

Kvitova won the first set at 6-3.  She ran out to a 3-2 lead and served for 4-2.   Sharapova repelled her and brought the set to 3-3.  Because the women play the the best out of three sets, Sharapova's serves and ground-strokes in this game could get bring her into a winning rhythm.  Instead she gets broken again.

Kvitova to serve.  At 15-15, Kvitova drives the ball long. It's 15-30.  Next Maria is wide and then long.  40-30, advantage Kvitova.   Just one point for Kvitova to win the point and set: 6-3.   Kvitova wins this game and wins Wimbledon.

Sharapova squwheezes shouts from her esophagus three times and produces three points on her serve.  With the fourth serve, she invites a miss wide from Kvitova.   Thus, it's Petra's turn to serve.   Here she must serve herself.  Two unhittable serves from Kvitova.  The third point: first serve into the net, second serve, Maria dumps into the net.  At forty-love, Kvitova serves for an ace.


Bingo. That's it: Petra Kvitova is the Wimbledon champion. What's more, she used an ace to win it all.   She smiles the smile of a relieved daughter and jubilant victor, hands stretched up a hundred and eighty degrees into the air.

The camera then turns to a close up, shoulder to top of the head, of her father, whose tears well up and throat appears to be choking for lack of oxygen.   Back and forth the lens moves from a frozen father to gamboling daughter.

Once the victory stand goes up, one final sweep to Kvitova's father.   His face is not so red -- after the adrenalin flow, his exposed skin has turned grey.

Khan Tsonga keep winning at Wimbledon?

Results of matches at Wimbledon on Wednesday could have brought the top four players into the semifinals OR could have seen all their less well-known opponents get through.  The outcomes spoiled the pattern I was looking for.  The only improbable ending was a win by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12th-seeded) that spoiled an inconceivable Roger Federer record of 178-0 when leading by two sets.

Today, Tsonga is playing Novak Djokovic (2nd-seeded, 2nd in the world, 46-1 in matches this year -- you can close your mouth now).  Djokovic took the first two sets from Tsonga, the first set by a width of a hair.  The loss of the first set hurt Tsonga, but the losing the second was debilitating.

Jo Willy swings his forehand like a club, serves well and hard, plays with utter abandon, and he takes little time between serves.

In the third set, he fell into a lethargy so deep, his snoring was louder than the impact of balls off the rackets.  Suddenly, with Djokovic's tires squeaking over his back, Tsonga regained the full-on energy that had fed him in the hair-raising first set.  He drew even with sweeping flat forehands and monster serves, peppering in some sweet drop shots.  Djokovic covers the court like a hoarder at a flea market; it is not easy to fiind spots to land the ball.  But this is what he did.  He took the set in a tie-break.

As I started this piece, I knew I couldn't get out five lines without one player getting to 2-0.  I thought it would be Djokovic.  I had barely spit out three lines and it was 3-0, Djokovic.  But as in the Federer match, Tsonga swings, lays out, gives a lie to the maxim that 210 men can't dig out 110 degree shots  and has gotten back one game to get the score to 5-3.

To catch up. Djokovic is serving for the fourth set and the match, which, if he wins it, will push him to world ranking of number one.  He has wanted this all his life.

He's serving at 40-15, match point now. No sound is heard because the crowd has shifted its loyalty capriciously from the underdog to the winning side: they clap rhythmically for Djokovic to finish Tsonga off.

In the time I think the word, Djokovic has thrown the ball up, struck it, homed it into the service court.  Tsonga swings and slaps it into the net.

Djo beats Jo.  The last of the new trees falls.